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| The Islamist Nusra Front leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani (CBS) |
I wish I could celebrate this long overdue coup. But Syria’s secular dictator has just been replaced by what is sure to be a religious Islamist dictatorship along the lines of Iran and Afghanistan. While this rebel group is no friend of Islamist Iran and Hezbollah which supported Assad, they are no friend of Israel either. This rebel group (once affiliated with Al Qaida and possibly ISIS) has been designated a terrorist organization by the US and their religious supreme leader a terrorist. Their victory over Assad is nothing to celebrate long term.
On the other hand, these rebels ought to be celebrating Israel. Without which this coup would not have happened. Israel has weakened Hezbollah and Iran. Assad relied upon them to help protect his regime. Nonetheless, as much as these rebels hate Hezbollah and Iran, they hate Israel more - having that in common with them. And surely share the same goals. (Russia, once Assad’s protector as well is out of the picture, They’re busy.)
Israel for its part has sent troops to Syria’s border to protect its border with them - sending them a message should they think about trying something.
So, what happened yesterday in Syria is worrisome even as I celebrate the demise of Assad. Israel has yet another belligerent front they might have to deal with. What happens next remains to be seen. But I have confidence that Israel will rise to this new challenge as well.
With all the criticism Israel is getting from foreign leaders and ‘humanitarian’ organizations whose latent antisemitism has come to the fore, their successes over the past year have been overlooked. It shouldn't be. Although I have touched on those successes no one has done a better job in describing them than has Jonathan Rosenblum in last week’s Mishpacha Magazine. From which I will quote extensively:
(Consider) the situation in which Israel finds itself today. The IDF is in full control of Gaza’s borders. By destroying the tunnels along the Philadelphi Corridor, the IDF has rendered Hamas incapable of rearming. At the same time, Israel has cleared a security zone along Gaza’s northern border, which makes a repeat of the Simchas Torah attack far less likely.
Hamas’s senior military leadership is decimated and much of its vast tunnel network under Gaza destroyed. Israel will not permit international funding to rebuild Gaza to be funneled through Hamas, which makes the reconstruction of that underground tunnel network impossible. And there are at least some signs that the population of Gaza is beginning to recognize the destruction that Hamas has brought upon them and seeks a future with some hope for better lives.
Meanwhile, a deal with Hezbollah means that the remnants of Hamas’s military wing are left to face the IDF alone, without hope of the IDF being distracted in the near term by the need to retain large forces in the north.
For its part, Hezbollah’s leadership, chief among them the charismatic and clever Hassan Nasrallah, has been thoroughly decapitated. The latest of Nasrallah’s would-be successors is rumored to have taken refuge in Iran, lest he join his predecessors at the receiving end of an Israeli bomb. The vast arsenal of rockets and missiles with which Hezbollah has terrorized Israel for more than a decade has been largely destroyed — 80% according to some news reports and including the majority of its long-range missiles. Between 3,000 and 4,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed and many others maimed. Upon its withdrawal from Lebanon, the IDF will return with vast storehouses of weapons stockpiled by Hezbollah for a cross-border attack on Israel.
On the very eve of the agreement going to effect, the IAF destroyed Hezbollah’s major production site for precision missiles, built and operated with Iranian assistance, and the nearby central compound of Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces, killing dozens of Hezbollah fighters. In the days preceding that, Israel succeeded in eliminating all the senior commanders of Hezbollah’s drone division.
Lest anyone think this is a pollyannish view of reality - consider
this from John Spencer, professor of modern urban warfare at West Point:
Once Israel decided to retaliate, it eliminated the complete enemy leadership hierarchy (cannot be replaced easily), destroyed massive amounts of their rocket launching capabilities (their key capability), seized and cleared critical terrain, demonstrated such superior capability (pager, dismantling operation) to put fear and consequences back in the enemy’s mind (aka deterrence), and measurably set the Islamic regime’s proxy back decades.
Where does Israel go from here? And what should the US posture be with respect to Israel? Have they done enough and call it quits? Has Netanyahu gone too far? Is any future gain worth the pain?
Honestly, I can’t answer these questions. But neither can anyone else that isn’t Israel. Including its closest ally, the US. They are not in Israel’s shoes. So in my view the right thing for the US to do is stand by it stated goal that Hamas must be destroyed and let the people trying to do that decide when that is.
Instead of looking at their left flank and talking about excessive civilian casualties (that Israel has no intention of inflicting – doing so only because that is what Hamas wants and assures happens); cease fire deals; and exchanges of massive amount of terrorists for hostages; the US should stick to the goal it stated at the beginning of the war; stop second guessing Israel’s military leadership; and fully support it.
Former National Security Advisor, Lt. General H.R. McMaster (retired) said this morning that the incoming administration should do exactly that. With a State Department under Marco Rubio who has said the same thing many times over the course of the war. I think they will. We shall see.