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| Haley and Trump (NBC) |
And that’s too bad for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is that polls show that in a head to head contest with Biden she has the best chance of winning compared to her now former Republican rivals and even Trump. But more importantly for me, her views about Israel and the Arab world – honed during her service as the US ambassador to the UN – are the most positive of all her rivals including Donald Trump. All of whom are pretty strong supporters of Israel anyway.
That being said, that doesn’t mean Trump will necessarily lose. My guess is that unlike 2020 he will win handily in 2024.
Biden is not exactly the most popular president in US history. Voters will judge him by some very significant failures. Some real and some imagined. Frist at age 80 voters fear his mental capacity is compromised and will not be getting any better over the next four years of his presidency.
There is also the inflation most Americans are feeling. True it has actually improved under his watch. But not where people spend their money most often - the grocery store. It seems like with every passing week prices keep skyrocketing!
Then there is his foreign policy - beginning with the debacle in the US exist from Afghanistan. From my perspective - far worse is his policy of ignoring Iran’s spread of terror - and the means to do it - all over the region. Instead trying to reach a stand alone nuclear deal. That is what enabled Hamas to commit their barbaric massacre in Israel last October. And enables the Houthi rebels to attack cargo ships in the Red Sea. Biden has also lost the Muslim vote because of his support for Israel’s war in Gaza.
Those are some or the reasons much of his natural constituency won’t vote for him.
On the other hand Trump’s MAGA supporters can’t get enough of him. The obvious question is why? What is it they see in him? (Perhaps more importantly how is it possible that non MAGA voters will vote for him?) How is it possible that a proven liar many times over; a man whose personal immorality is an open book ; a man under 4 simultaneous criminal indictments; a man who incited the Capital riots of January 6th; a man that dog whistles to racists and anitsemites; a man who alienates our allies... how can he be so popular with his MAGA supporters? Many of whom are Orthodox Jews and Evangelical Christians?
How is it possible that a man like Trump to be picking up support from more black people than he did in the past? How is a man that compared illegal Latino immigrants to rapists and murderers now have the support of most of the Latino community?
Things are not as black and white as they might seem. Trump haters on both the right and left consider him the worst thing to happen to the US in all of its history. They see another Trump presidency as the end of democracy as we know it. And they are pretty depressed about that.
How can so many intelligent, moral, and ethical people support someone with so much negative baggage?
First we must reject the notion that all MAGA voters are stupid and/or evil. On the contrary as noted - the more religious one is (as in Orthodox Jews and Evangelical Christians) the more likely they will vote for Trump despite all of his serious flaws. That’s because none of the above matters to them. They do not see him as a criminal or insurrectionist. They believe all those indictments are politically motivated and at best exaggerated.
They not only like his politics but they love his abrasive style. Saying out loud what they think. They do not see him as racist or antisemitic.
Does this mean that all those who will be voting for him think the 2020 election was rigged or stolen? True, a lot do. But many don’t. And that is not what motivates them anyway. At the end of the day they actually do think that Trump’s conservative policies will make America great again.
By great again - they mean an America that will stop going woke. An America that return to honoring our founding fathers. Return to a time where sexual mores were more in line with the values of the bible instead of the values of Hollywood. This is what they saw in his choice of Supreme Court Justices during his first term They want that to resume.
They also like his ‘drain the swamp’ message.
Another Trump presidency does not mean the US is about to go to Hell in a handbasket? Even as I know some very smart people are absolutely convinced that it will. It didn’t happen in his first term and it won’t happen in the next. What will happen is a continuation of the polices that his voters love. Polices they see will make America great again.
They do nots see the term MAGA as a pejorative. They see it as a badge of honor whose goal is to restore America to a time where sexual immorality was not treated by western culture as a virtue.
Those who might say that immorality has existed throughout history and is no worse now than it has always been - may be right. But it was never seen as a positive value until recent times. MAGA voters want to see that end. And I don’t blame them. Ironic as it may be, their view is that if it takes an immoral man to restore the values of earlier times to this country that is who they will enthusiastically support.