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| Green Party candidate Cornell West |
Not that long ago, I thought that was as likely as a Marianne Williamson presidency. (Yes, she is running again. But - no chance.) As things stand now, however, I think Trump has never been in better shape to win in the general election. – shocking though that may be.
That a man so unqualified to serve in any American leadership position will once again become the leader of the free world.... I’m speechless. To say that he is morally and ethically compromised is the understatement of the century! There is not a doubt in my mind that his behavior after the 2020 election inspired the more radical of his supporters to storm the Capital and overthrow the government in violent insurrection. Undermining the will of the electorate - one of the most sacred of American traditions.
Needless to say anyone that inspires insurrectionist behavior should not be President. And yet that seems quite likely at this point if you can believe recent polls. Which indicate that if the election were held today, there would be a virtual tie between the the two likely candidates, Trump and Biden.
Trump’s MAGA supports have never been more energized because of all of his indictments. They all buy into the claim by their ‘fearless leader’ that this is all one big ‘witch hunt’. A belief not entirely refuted by his Republican opponents for the nomination. While they mostly agree that he is not fit to be president (for the above stated reasons) nonetheless they all see the indictments being politically motivated. They do not believe the last and most serious indictment rises to the level of criminality.
(In my view, it is going to be impossible to prove that Trump knew he lost the election and deliberately planned to overthrow it knowing he lost. Just because that is what he was told by senior advisors - like Pence and Barr - does not mean he believed them. He chose to believe his own hack lawyers - like Giuliani and Powell - who told him the election was stolen and that all of his attempts to stay in power were done legally.
On the other hand he will be denied a change of venue and will be tried in a jurisdiction where 95% of the people voted against him. That is the pool from which jurors will be selected. The judge - an Obama appointee - will be presiding over the trial. So he may be convicted anyway. But I digress. And it doesn't matter anyway with respect to his possible re-election to the Presidency.)
These indictments will insure that Trump gets the nod (again).
I had believed that in the general election his diehard supporters would not be enough to give him the win. Many conservative leaning voters (like myself) believe that he is so unqualified, that some of us will hold their noses and vote for Biden. And some of us will just sit out the next election.
What pushes me in the direction of a Trump win is the entry of third party candidates. One already announced and there are possibly more on the horizon.
One such candidate is Cornell West who is running as the Green Party candidate. West has about as much chance of winning the general election as Williamson does. He is a woke Marxist (albeit without Marx’s rejection of religion.). And a supporter of Louis Farrakhan. Not gonna get too many votes. But he will definitely peel away votes from Biden.
There is also the serious possibility of a candidate running from a new party called the No Label Party. It was founded by Joe Lieberman. And currently co-chaired by a ‘Never Trumper’ Republican, Larry Hogan. They have indicated that if the two candidates are Trump and Biden, they will run their own candidate. A name that has been tossed around is Democrat Joe Manchin – who has actually been thinking about becoming an Independent. That of course would fit nicely with the ideals of the No Label Party.
Manchin would indeed be a serious consideration over the two presumptive standard bearers. He may get a sizable vote from independents and from voters that want neither Trump nor Biden. But Manchin will not win the Presidency. He will peel away votes from both Trump and Biden, But probably more from Biden. If West and Manchin Run - Biden loses.
Just my thoughts as things stand now.