Will Trump get a Second Term as President?

Special Counsel Jack Smith announcing the indictment (CBS)

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied in a hypothetical rematch at 43 percent support for their return to the White House in 2024, according to a July poll from The New York Times and Siena College released Tuesday.

When asked who they would vote for between Biden as the Democratic nominee and Trump as the GOP’s, both saw 43 percent support among the surveyed registered voters. Trump saw slightly more support from his base than Biden, with 88 percent of registered Republicans selecting Trump versus 83 percent of Democrats choosing Biden. Independents favored Biden with 42 percent support over 37 percent for Trump. 

Of course this poll does not reflect yesterday’s indictment against Trump announced by the Justice Department. But I don’t think that matters all that much. After all none of the other indictments did. Even though the latest indictments are far more serious, I don’t think it would change the numbers.

How does one explain all that? How is it possible that a man accused of some of the most heinous crimes against his country be considered a hero to so much of America? A hero worthy of becoming the leader of the free world? Is half the country that dumb? 

I’m sure that Trump haters think so. They believe all of Trump’s MAGA base consists of either White Supremacist types or morons incapable of a single intelligent thought. 

But that is patently false on its face.  You might be able to say that about a lot of Americans, but not about half the electorate. I believe that there are a lot of intelligent  people that support the former President. Including some of my good friends.  Despite - and even perhaps because of - all those indictments.

I don’t think there are any simple answers to these questions. Nonetheless here are a few of my thoughts as to why this is. 

Let me start with the following. The country is polarized at a near unprecedented level. Perhaps rivaling the polarization between the North and South during the Civil War.  Trump did not create this polarization. But he surely brought it out in all of us.

MAGA voters like his outsider status, his confrontational approach to opponents, and his polices which reflected their mostly socially conservative world view. They could not care less about the negative spin the mainstream media paints him with. His supporters have long ago discredited that media as biased and not balanced. The media is now generally considered advocates for the polices of the liberal democratic party and therefore not trusted as honest reporters. This attitude was formed in the cauldron of right  wing radio talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh. He dominated the airwaves for many years - until his untimely death a couple of years ago. Trump has basically become the ‘Rush Limbuagh’ of politics. To the cheers of his many MAGA fans.

On the other hand, these same qualities alienated many voters who disapproved of his style and policies. Voters that include a significant  number of Conservative ‘Never Trumpers’.

 As the incumbent Biden, should have the advantage. But he apparently does not. Here’s why. The number one issue is his age. He will be 85 at the end of his next term. This does not mean that he will become senile at that age – making him a danger to the country. But that is surely a greater possibility at age 85 than it is at age – say  55. There have been a few incidents that make that possibility a bit more likely.  

There is also that fact that Biden has become far more liberal now than he was in the past. Which alienates  conservative and centrist voters. Polls also show that - true or false - most of the electorate sees the economy in a negative light. And they blame the incumbent’s economic policies  for that.  

Mass shootings and assorted acts  of violence continues unabated under his watch. Than there is the lack of a coherent immigration policy. The foreign policy decision early in his Presidency to hurriedly abandon Afghanistan – leaving it to the Taliban - was not Biden’s finest moment..

What about the new indictments Trump is facing? Will that change anything? I don’t think so. Everybody knew it was coming. His supporters see it as a politically motivated, unjustified attack on their beloved leader. For purposes of destroying his chances of being re-elected.  

Trump's detractors on the other hand see it as a critical moment in holding a former president accountable for potential wrongdoing. And an essential step in upholding the rule of law and ensuring that no one - regardless of their status or position, is above the law.

Does this indictment have merit?

The way I see it, Trump was completely irresponsible and unethical in how he handled his defeat in the 2020 election. His rhetoric and behavior are surely responsible for the insurrection that happened on January 6^th. That alone should disqualify him from ever holding any political office again. Much less the Presidency. But did he break the law? Did he actually conspire to overthrow the results of the election? Did he tell the protestors that day to storm the capital?

I’m not so sure about that. But Special Counsel Jack Smith is. He preictally said that Trump ordered them to do it. I don’t think Trump did that. Yes, you can blame him for what happened. But I don’t know if that it rises to the level of the charges being brought against him. 

Lying about the election is indeed unethical. But is it a crime? Or is it just exercising free speech? Did Trump actually believe that the election was rigged in some way? I think he probably did. And he tried to find ways to overturn those ‘rigged' results. 

Was listening to the bad advice of his counsel a crime? Even if they advised him incorrectly, he had no way of  knowing for example that the  advice he got from his attorneys to tell Pence not to certify the was not legitimate. 

I believe that this indictment is politically motivated. Even as the prosecutor forcefully accused Trump of the charges and described how serious they are. The media is lapping it all up too, Doubling down in on the Special Prosecutor's  serious charges.

But Trump did not tell anyone to storm the capital. Those who did were probably inspired to do so by Trump. But there is no way of proving that it was Trump’s intent. I don’t believe that Trump  meant it to go that far.

This case will go to trial and a jury will decide. But in my view, the venue needs to be changed since 95% of Washington DC voted for Biden. I don’t think it’s possible to choose an unbiased jury from that pool of potential jurors.

One thing seems clear. The more Trump is indicted, the more support he gets from his base. And if the poll numbers are anywhere near predictive of the next election, we may just see a second term for the former President.