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| Big Winners - Ben-Gvir and Smotrich (TOI) |
Otzma voters are not what can be called a small fringe group. With about 20,000 voters per seat that means that means that 280,000 Israelis voted for him. That’s hardly fringe number. Adding to this phenomenon is that this was the largest voter turnout in Israel’s history.
Ben-Gvir was a fringe figure until recently. And with good reason. When your heroes are Rabbi Meir Kahane and mass murderer Baruch Goldstein… and when as a lawyer you defend extremists that attack innocent Palestinians in what they called price tag raids… and when have a political philosophy that believes the solution to Israel’s security problems is transferring Arabs out of the country… there should be no argument about someone like that being considered a racist and on the fringe.
If that is the case, How can so many Jews vote for him? Are they racist too?
What about the continued support for Netanyahu ? How could a man who is on trial for corruption and reviled by so many voters for his self serving egotistical approach to governance and an apparent lack of any sense of ethics - manage to get 32 seats? That’s 640,000 voters! More Israelis voted for his party by far than any other party! Does that mean that Israelis are not only racist but unethical?
What about Shas and UTJ – the Charedi parties? They seem to have fared much better than expected garernng 20 seats between them That’s 400,000 voters. If there is anyone more reviled more thsan Ben-Gvir and Netanyahu. it is the Charedi parties. Total it all up and you have 1,320,000 Jews that voted for parties that about half the country hates.
What all this means is that Netanyahu will have a governing coalition of 66 seats. There should be little doubt then about who the next prime mister will be.
It is no secret that Israeli and American politicians on the left hate Netanyahu and his policies. My friends on the left seem to believe that this will be a disaster for Israel – in a variety of ways. Not the least of which might mean diminished support from the US. They believe that a government that includes Ben-Gvir will lose stature among all nations And perhaps most importantly the Charedi parties are hated by almost everyone except themselves. Fairly or unfairly they are seen as contributing little and taking much. This is even how much of the observant Dati Leumi Jews feel about them.
Bearing all this in mind what will the immediate future look like for Israel? Will they become a pariah nation with increased censure? I sure hope not.
At this point we have no choice but to give them a chance to govern and see what develops. It certainly is not prudent to assume the worst.
For one thing, Israel still has a lot going for it. It is the only democracy and America’s strongest ally in the Middle East. The assumption that Israel needs the US more than the US needs Israel might be true. But the fact is that the US benefits greatly from Israel’s intelligence community. The fact that Israel is one of the leading nations in a variety of fields, including science, medicine, high tech, and commerce. also helps its stature.
What about Ben Gvir’s racism? He claims that he is not racist or anti Arab. And that he is simply pro Israel with policies designed to give Israel he best security possible.
Netanyahu may be an egotistical megalomaniac. But he has also proven himself to be an effective leader despite the fact that he has antagonized his political opponents and American politicians on the left. The fact is that President Biden recognizes Israel’s value to the US and has said many times that he will work with whomever wins the Israel’s elections. Even if he does not personally like the winner. (Which I am not even sure is true.) Besides - It is quite possible that both houses of congress will be majority Republican after the US election next week. They are far more friendly to - and supportive of - Netanyahu than are Democrats.
Netanyahu is poised to be the next prime minister with a much stronger coalition than he had last time. There has been a lot of handwringing about how much power Netanyahu will give Ben-Gvir. My guess is that Be-Gvir will be given a powerful ministerial position – like defense minister. That might seem scary, But Ben-Gvir is not stupid. I don’t think he will do anything rash that would surely bring down the government.
The Charedi parties will also have more control – and more money. But their situation will not be all that different than it was in the past. Will they alieanate more secular– and even Dati Leumi Israelis? It would seem so. But who really knows? My guess is that their primary goal will be to assure their institutions get maximum funding from the government. And that they will leave the religious-secular status quo as is.
This is all speculation on my part – of course. We will have to wait and see what develops. In the meantime we ought to give any new government a chance. Hopefully they will rise to the occasion and not be the disaster the left surely thinks they will be.