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| Secretary of State, Antony Blinken (Wiki) |
It should be more than obvious that past American attempts at making peace between the Arabs and Israel has for decades been a massive failure. For over 53 years the US has tried and failed in multiple attempts at doing so.
Until 2017 the assumption had always been that for Israel to make peace with its Arab neighbors, it would first have to solve the Palestinian problem. In that vein every administration pressured Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians for the sake of peace. Something that saw its ultimate failure in the 90s when during the Clinton administration then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak gave Palestinians just about everything the asked for - including East Jerusalem (with the proviso that Israel would have full access to the Kotel at all times) - in exchange for peace. That got us a 2nd intifada. They did not get 100% of what they were asking for so Palestinians leaders told their people to riot. Which they happily did.
That failure should have precipitated the US thinking out of the box. It didn’t.
A few years later, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon unilaterally gave up Gaza to the Palestinians as a gesture of good will and - more importantly - because of the demographic time bomb of increasing Palestinian population due to their high birth rate.
Not surprisingly, the Palestinian leadership rejected that as any kind of gesture at all, nonetheless taking control of Gaza anyway. Instead of trying to build good will with Israel by building up that area, Hamas (the Palestinian faction labeled by the US as a terrorist organization) took control of Gaza and proceeded to terrorize Israel with a variety of attacks – not the least of which was sending rockets indiscriminately across its border with Israel and endangering innocent Israeli lives.
That did not stop foggy bottom (the State Department) from advising every administration to stick to a policy that has shown failure after failure - believing there was no other way to go about making peace. The policy was to keep appeasing the Palestinians by using their narrative of occupation and illegal settlement activity. The idea of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and considering Jerusalem the capital of Israel was seen as counter productive. They thought it would cause additional Palestinian animosity toward the US and precipitate violence. The Golan Heights that Israel captured in 67 and later annexed by them was not recognized by the US for the same reason. Settlement expansion was illegal no matter where or how little. Even if was to only add a bedroom to an existing structure in a border city that would surely go to Israel in any agreement.
In contravention to the America’s generous intent to provide humanitarian financial aid to their people, Palestinian leadership promptly used that money to reward families of terrorists who died as ‘martyrs’ blowing themselves up in Israel.
Along came Donald Trump. Regardless of what one may think about him, in my view his polices with respect to Israel changed everything. For the better.
The US embassy was moved to Jerusalem which was then recognized as the capital of Israel. Soon after anyone born there could for the first time declare they born in Israel on their passports. Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights was finally recognized as part of Israel. The word ‘occupation’ was removed from the official lexicon when speaking of the West Bank – as was the word ‘settlements’. Financial aid to the Palestinians was eliminated because of how they used it.
Although the idea of a ‘Two State Solution’ was not abandoned, a new policy was formed. It was generated by a belligerent Iran threatening to wipe Israel off the map - and attempting to build nuclear weapons. That threatened neighboring Arab states. And that created a new status quo in the Middle East. Neighboring Arab States started seeing Israel as an ally rather than an adversary. In relatively short order, the Trump administration took advantage of that and managed to get 4 Arab nations to recognize Israel and exchange ambassadors.
Prior to Trump, so called Middle East experts considered that an impossibility. At least not without making peace with the Palestinians first. Those same experts thought that without focusing on Israel’s occupation and ‘illegal’ settlements they would lose any credibility and leverage they had with the Palestinian leadership - and the rest of the Arab world.
They have been proven wrong. It is true that the US lost credibility with Palestinians under Trump because of all of that. But so what? That did not change a thing. Israel has not suffered from any kind of negative reaction by Palestinians - who are no worse off now than they were before. In fact the promise of huge financial aid if they decide to make peace by giving up some of their ‘non-negotiable’ demands would improve their lives immeasurably and give Israel a Palestinian state they could live with.
In short the new world order gave rise to new policies that actually bore some fruit.
In comes a new President whose state department promptly reverts to some of the failed policies of the past. The words ‘occupation’ and ‘settlements’ are once again part of the lexicon. Financial aid to the Palestinians has bee restored. The hope being that the US will be able to restore its credibility with their leaders.
Which begs the question, why bother? After a half century of zero progress by the failed policies - why go back to them if they have little prospect of doing any better over the next half century?
Now if a resident of one of the large border cities on the West Bank side of Israel’s border wants to add a bedroom he will not be able to without the US objecting. Which may end up being significant in the UN where the new US ambassador surely does not have the same passion for Israel that those under the previous administration had. Are we going to see a repeat of a US abstention in a UN Security Council vote allowing them condemn Israel again?
Reverting to the failed policies of the past and expecting better results is pure insanity.
That being said, not everything the Biden Administration is doing is bad. They are not abandoning all of Trump’s polices. Jerusalem will still be the location of the US embassy and still be recognized as Israel’s capital. Israel’s annexation if the Golan Heights will remain recognized. And Biden will continue pursuing more Arab nations to recognize Israel.
What this means going forward is hard to predict. But if I had to guess, I wild say that little will come of Biden’s return to the policies of the past. That the Palestinian leadership might have better relations with the US will not help a single Palestinian in the street.
Had Biden instead stuck to Trump administration policies, it is at least possible if not likely that Palestinians would finally realize that they cannot get what they want under any administration. And with the promise of financial aid being dangled over their heads, they would seek to improve their lives in other ways. Sadly, that kind of thinking has just about been entirely washed away by reverting to the polices that give Palestinians the false hope that they can have it all. Which is as ridiculous now as it ever was. If it couldn’t happen under Ehud Barak, it will surely not happen now.