Five Jews, Biden, and Israel

Secretary of State designate, Antony Blinken (Wiki)

Five of the people President-elect Joe Biden has chose for top positions in his administration are Jewish. Which is pretty remarkable for someone that said that his administration would look more like America. Looking more like America is a  common description  by Democrats that see the American people through the prism of identity politics. I guess to Joe Biden, America looks pretty Jewish. 

That said, being Jewish does not mean being overly pro Israel. If I understand correctly all of these people served in the Obama administration that – although pro Israel up to a point, one could hardly say they over did that support.  If anyone doubts that the next President will more or less resume the foreign polices the Obama administration those doubts can be put to rest..

Other than John Kerry, I don’t know much about the people Biden selected as part of his foreign policy team. And even though Kerry’s portfolio will deal with climate change, he will nevertheless have a seat at the foreign policy table. Why wouldn’t he? I’m sure Biden will call on his experience as a former Secretary of State in considering foreign policy decisions. Not too thrilled about that. 

I do know a bit about a couple of his choices as follows. 

His choice for US ambassador to the UN is Linda Thomas-Greenfield, a 35 year veteran of the State Department. To the best of my knowledge there is no record of her views on Israel. Having served as the US ambassador to Liberia, and having been a top diplomat for Africa her expertise lies not in Middle Eastern affairs. It lies in another part of the world. But having spent a 35 year long career at ‘Foggy Bottom’ does not give me a lot of confidence in her attitude about Israel. One thing is certain. She is no ‘Nikki Haley’. 

The most important Cabinet member is arguably the Secretary of State. Even though he is Jewish, Tony Blinken is by no means anywhere near as pro Israel as Pompeo, who calls himself a Christian Zionist.  Blinken will not be doing anything like visiting a an Israeli settlement on the West Bank. He will instead very likely be returning to the failed Middle East foreign policies of the past. 

In a speech he once gave gave to J-Street, he said the only path to peace will be a 2 state solution defining Israel’s borders more or less along pre 67 lines. With the ‘old city’ (East Jerusalem) as their capital. Which includes the Kotel. He will also be re-opening the American consulate there. Even though he will not be returning the US embassy in Jerusalem to Tel Aviv, the US will be re-opening a consulate office there. 

There is no reason to assume he would consider taking the approach of the Trump administration that circumvented Palestinian leadership and sought other peace partners for Israel. Successfully with 3 Arab  countries. And Saudi Arabia is on the cusp of becoming a possible 4^th. 

This is not to say he will not pursue additional peace partners with Israel. I doubt that he would be so unwise as to put an end to that particular policy. In fact he actually praised Trump’s accomplishments there. But he will surely resurrect Palestinian hopes of getting what they are demanding as part of any peace deal. They must be thrilled with the results of the election. 

As is Iran. 

Biden has already promised to reinstate the nuclear deal with them. He will surely task Blinken to implement it. Thereby removing the  crushing sanctions placed on them by Trump after he canceled the deal. Iran must be happy about that. Now - instead of worrying about feeding their people - they can return to focusing on spreading terror. Mostly in the form of supplying Israel’s enemies with more means to destroy her. 

But all is not lost. If I understand correctly, Biden will use this opportunity to get more concessions out of Iran. Concessions that were overlooked by the original deal in Obama’s zeal to get a nuclear deal done. If Biden can accomplish removing them as a terrorist threat in that region, and - not only stop them from enriching uranium but stop them from developing ballistic missiles, I would support it – providing the deal is fully verifiable with a ‘snap back’ restoration of sanctions should they violate it. I hope he does that and gets our European allies to go along with that.  That would be great. 

My fear is though, that he will not accomplish that and will settle for a return to the deal as it was under Obama. That would be tragic. 

The rest of his Israel policy will probably be as supportive of Israel as Obama was in terms of considering Israel an important ally; assuring Israel’s military superiority in the region; military cooperation; and intelligence sharing. Biden will ‘have Israel’s back’ that way. Just as Obama did. But I will miss the way Israel is being treated by the Trump administration. 

This is pretty much how I size up what Biden has done so far.