The Game Changes

That was before last Shabbos when South Carolina had their primary. Biden won big –capturing almost 50 percent of the vote. More than double of his closest rival Sanders. Butigieg ended up behind Tom Steyer in fourth place with single digits. 

It appears that Bloomberg’s 600 million dollar quest for the nomination has not panned out the way he expected it would.  He entered the race as an alternative to Biden in the belief that Biden could not win. Now it is Bloomberg who has that distinction, it appears. It is now Bloomberg that has been all but written off.

Elizabeth Warren continues her slide down the trail of improbability as does Amy Klobuchar.

Steyer has dropped out of the race. That should not surprise anyone.  

What is somewhat surprising is that  Buttigieg has suddenly dropped out as well. While it’s true that he did not do well in South Carolina, he won big in the first 2 contests. A poor showing in Nevada and South Carolina does not mean he wouldn’t do well on Super Tuesday. (Which is tomorrow.)

But I guess he saw the handwriting on the wall. Sanders and Biden are the ones with momentum now. He probably felt that staying in the race would take away votes from Biden the more moderate candidate, with no clear winner by the time they have their convention in Milwaukee. Which would mean a contested convention where backroom deals would replace the will of the Democratic voter. So he did the honorable thing and dropped out. While he did not endorse Biden, it’s pretty clear that he does not support Sanders  or his Socialist policies. Nor does he think a Socialist can win the election against Trump in November.

Last night he gave an eloquent speech to supporters in his home town South Bend, Indiana.  He showed his true colors as a patriot willing to sacrifice his own needs for the sake of the country. I don’t think that can be disputed no matter how you feel about him or his policies. I don’t agree with most of them. But I have to give him credit for his integrity. Which is pretty rare for a politician. 

He also happened to do himself a lot of good for any future attempt at high office. Inluding another run for President. Which is very possible considering his young age of 38.  (Although as I’ve said in the past, I’m not sure the country is ready for a gay President now or at any time in the near future. Even though gay people are pretty much equally accepted in this country both individually and as a group.)

At this point – it seems that it is only a matter of time before Warren and Klobuchar drop out. Although as a moderate, Klobuchar would make a sensible choice for Vice President (if Biden wins the nomination) that could deliver the Midwest.

That is how things look from here. That said, I’m not yet convinced that Sanders won’t somehow pull it off. Which if he does - will probably lose big time to Trump. At this point it seems far more likely that Biden is going to be the nominee.

The question then becomes, can he win against Trump? I’m not so sure. Watching him on the campaign trail… there seems to be something off about him. He stammers a lot during debates and interviews. He seems to correct himself a lot mid sentence. He does not exude the kind of confidence one would expect in a President. 

His polices may be moderate.  But that is only in comparison to Sanders. Biden is about as liberal as a Democrat can get. That he constantly promotes himself as an extension of former President Obama should tell you all you need to know about what a Biden Presidency would look like.

What concerns me is what his policy with respect to Israel will be like. He does support Israel and will likely continue the kind of financial support, military cooperation and and intelligence sharing that was in lace during Obama’s administration. 

But he has made no secret of his disdain of Netanyahu or his right wing policies. As Vice President he had publicly scolded him on more than one occasion. We will be going back to a policy that sees ‘settlements as obstacles to peace’. If Biden’s polices actually do become an extension of Obama’s, I do not see anything positive coming out of that for Israel.

Frankly, I do not understand why anyone would want to return to the polices of the past that did nothing except prolong the status quo for Israel and Palestinians for decades. It had done nothing for the cause of peace.  And yet that is what every liberal thinks would be a good idea.

This is not to say that Trump’s peace plan will ever get any traction. But Israel and the Palestinians are no worse off now than they were under Obama’s policies. Meanwhile the relationship between the US and Israel has never been closer. Why change that if there will be no positive benefit coming out of it by going back to the failed policies of the past?!

(This does not mean I think Netanyahu’s pro settler polices are a good idea. I don’t.  But even that has no real bearing on the welfare of most Israelis  or Palestinians – other than inciting their radical element  towards  more violence against Israelis. Which in my view is a good reason not to pursue those policies. But I digress.)

All this is of course speculation. There is still no way of knowing who will the Democratic nominee - much less who will win the Presidency come November. But it’s always fun to speculate. And this is - once again - my 2 cents.