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| Image from Cross Currents for illustrative purposes only |
I have been saying for some time now that the handwriting is on the wall. Today’s heterodoxy is about to join the many other movements that have arisen in Jewish history that are now either extinct or almost extinct. It is only a matter of time.
I know that a lot of people get upset with me when I bring it up. But I am just the messenger. Those who are making these kinds of predictions are not Orthodox nor do they have any anti heterodox agenda. They are respected academics. Such as Steven M. Cohen and Mickey Gussow and Edieal Pinker who made similar observations in a recent Forwardarticle. The reasons for these kinds of conclusions are all spelled out and are hard to dispute. I think this can largely be summed up as follows:
Only the Orthodox are having enough children to fuel population growth. Conservative and Reform Jews are falling well short of population replacement. We may compare Reform/Conservative Jews with the Orthodox at different ages. Among 60-69 year olds, the ratio of Conservative/Reform to Orthodox is 14:1. Among 30-somethings, it falls to just over 2:1. And among the children, it’s less than 3:2, as Orthodox numbers have almost caught up to the combined Conservative and Reform numbers.
The data clearly show how non-marriage, intermarriage, and low birthrates have taken their toll on Conservative and Reform population numbers.
No surprises here. Just hard data. But this post is not about that. It is only a preface to a real problem facing Orthodoxy that some might argue counters its growth. I’ve heard it argued that Orthodoxy’s OTD problem is so great that those opting out of observance outnumbers those coming in as newly observant (often called Baalei Teshuva or BTs).
I have no real way of knowing whether that’s true or not. But even if it is that still leaves the much higher birthrate as the primary reason for our growth. Orthodox Jews do have substantially more children than Jewish members of heterodox movements or Jews of no affiliation. That seems pretty clear.
But that still leaves going OTD as a major problem. Especially if there are more ‘leaving’ than ‘coming in’. Either way it is growing one that is far from being solved. And one that should give us pause before we celebrate any victory for Torah observance and the lifestyle it engenders. There is no victory when there is such a massive attrition rate.
Rabbi Avrohom Gordimer makes note of that in his own article of the subject at Cross Currents. Here is what he says:
I am concerned about trends in Modern and Charedi Orthodoxy. In Israeli society, there is a very steep attrition rate among Religious Zionist youth, and the situation in America does not appear to be so posivite either. Although the numbers are not as severe among Charedi youth, there is an increasing preponderance of stories of such youth “going OTD”, including children and grandchildren from prestigious rabbinical families. All in all, there is powerful growth, but the substantive cracks cannot be overlooked.
In Modern Orthodoxy (MO), the factors for attrition are: 1) positive immersion in/embrace of secular culture, including its values and practices, which are frequently antithetical to Torah practice and values; 2) an often sterile, uninspiring religious atmosphere.
I think that’s right to a large degree as it pertains what I refer to as MO-Lite families. I do not, however, see this as a problem in more right wing MO (Centrist) families that are serious about observance and where that is reflected in the home. Unfortunately I believe that there is a lot more MO Lite families in Modern Orthodoxy than there are serious Centrist ones.
While there are serious Left Wing Modern Orthodox families that are similarly serious, the problems there are of a different kind and beyond the scope of this post.
Rabbi Gordimer deals with the OTD problem in the Charedi world, too:
(M)uch of the educational system avoids any parnassa training until the point of sha’s ha-dechak or close to it has created some serious problems – which inevitably impact the religiosity of a portion of those caught up in the problems. (Not to mention that this strategy is bound to force people to rely on public assistance and perhaps cut the corners of honesty due to major financial pressures.) …tens or hundreds of thousands of young men receive not even minimal parnassa training until extremely late into the game, if at all. Not to mention lack of instruction in decent and professional communication skills.
This is all very true. I fully agree and have discussed these problems many times. But there are other reasons that a Charedi youth might go OTD. It isn’t just the lack of Parnassa training. In some cases it is abusive family situations. In some cases it is child sex abuse that turned them off. In some cases it is intellectual – based on unchallenged influences (such as the internet) outside the home or the classroom. Unchallenged because most educators still don’t know how to deal with them.
But I think the biggest problem It is the way the Charedi educational system has evolved. I believe that the competition between Charedi schools to be the best (i.e. where the most Torah is learned) - and/or to be frummest (I.e. where more Chumra observance is required) has caused more young people to go OTD than any other reason. Maybe even more than all other reasons combined.
Now I have no proof that this is the greatest reason. But if one reads the story of ‘Malkie’ and so manhy other soreis like hers, I don’t see how one can have any other conclusion. It would be interesting if a survey of these young people could be done to see what the percentage of them were turned them off by their educational experience.
I believe the problem is a lot greater than anyone realizes or is willing to admit. This is not a new problem. Nor is its growth anything new. What isn’t new is a realistic solution. For Modern Orthodoxy the solution is to make Judaism more inspiring to their youth. Inspiration begins in the home. Which means somehow inspiring the parents. How to do that is beyond m paygrade. But I think that is the only real solution.
What about OTD Charedi youth? First there needs to be a good secular studies program. Furthermore there has to be an end to the completion between schools. The workload of all students has to be lightened. There has to be room for young people to come home and chill... to spend some time on hobbies or the like. No student should be required to spend all of their time away from school doing homework.
Frumkeit ought to be abandoned as a goal – leaving that up to each household. (If a family does not use Chalav Yisroel, or the mother wears a denim skirt - that ought not be a cause for concern.)
Every student ought to be treated by every teacher as the most important person in the room. No matter what their capabilities are.
But perhaps most important is that – just like the MO community, this community too needs to be inspired. I recall one wise educator (I no longer recall who) saying that the problem isn’t that children are going off the Derech. The problem is that they were never ‘on’ the Derech in the first place. They are uninspired by what they are taught in the home or in the school. Which is more of a ‘what’ than a ‘why’.
Yes it’s important to know what the Halacha is and how to do it properly. But if that is all that a child learns he may end up asking the ‘why’ himself and coming up with his own answers. And they may not be the ones you want to hear.
So, yes Orthodoxy has a lot to be proud of. We are the only denomination that seems to have a future. But as we go forward we ought to pause and reflect. And make sure that no one is left behind.